According To Headlines Today-CVoter poll:-
The Congress-led UPA government completes nine years today but the chances of its return to power, with Lok Sabha elections less than a year away, are bleak, indicates a Headlines Today-CVoter opinion poll.
The Congress is likely to lose a major chunk of votes and many seats in eight important states in the general elections, says the forecast.
The second term of United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has been eventful for all the wrong reasons. Two main regional parties have ditched the ruling alliance-- the Trinamool Congress from West Bengal and the DMK from Tamil Nadu -- and the government continues to fight one incident of corruption after another.
In this trubulent political season, the Congress party is likely to see a calamity in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Kerala and Delhi (where it now rules) and Tamil Nadu (ruled by the AIADMK) and Uttar Pradesh (ruled by the Samajwadi Party).
Here is what may happen in the eight states, according to poll predictions.
Congress' uneasy alliance with the NCP, the drought in the state and the irrigation scam are likely to hit the party hard in the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress could lose five seats while the NCP may lose two. The beneficiaries are likely to be the MNS, the Shiv Sena (recouping after the death of party founder Bal Thackeray) and the BJP.
From 20 seats now, the Congress could be down to just eight seats after the general elections, says the poll. Reason: A resurgence of the BJP in the arid western state with an anti-incumbancy wave building up against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's Congress government. So Congress' loss will be BJP's gain.
Though Jaganmohan Reddy, Congress' bete noire, is still in jail for corruption, the influence of his new party -- YSR Congress -- will eat into the ruling party's voter base. While the Congress is expected to lose as many as 26 seats, the sympathy for Jagan, after the death of his chief minister father in a chopper crash, might bring home 11 seats.
The southern-most state, which recently voted in a Congress government, are planning to throw out the party from as many as eight seats in the parliamentary elections. The gainer of course would be the Left parties, now sulking in the opposition.
Despite conviction of INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala in a corruption case, the party can gain some seats in the polls. Which means a loss of four seats for the ruling Congress.
The anger of the city-state over the Dec 16 gang-rape and discontent over huge power and water bills may lead to a change in equations with the Congress losing six of the seven seats it now holds and the BJP netting the ruling party's misses.
The AIADMK government has come out supreme in the state of Tamil Nadu and the trend is likely to continue in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The DMK is also expected to reap the benefits of its well-timed fallout with the Congress at the Centre. The two parties leave the national party with little hope. Congress is likely to lose at least seven seats.
Like the debalce in the assembly polls last year, electorate of the state with the most number of Lok Sabha seats, is unlikely to vote for the Congress in the general elections. It could be down from 26 to a mere six seats and two of these could be the traditional bastions of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi.