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Home Lok Sabha Elections 2014 | LOk Sabha Poll Opinion Poll :If India voted today: TMC to win 23-27 in WB; JD(U) 15-19, BJP 8-12 in Bihar,Opinion Poll Predict by CNN-IBN , Lok Sabha election opinion exit poll, Lok Sabha ELECTION SURVEY RESULT , who will win in Lok Sabha polls 2014, Lok
LOk Sabha Poll Opinion Poll :If India voted today: TMC to win 23-27 in WB; JD(U) 15-19, BJP 8-12 in Bihar,Opinion Poll Predict by CNN-IBN , Lok Sabha election opinion exit poll, Lok Sabha ELECTION SURVEY RESULT , who will win in Lok Sabha polls 2014, Lok PDF Print E-mail
Written by leadtech   
Tuesday, 23 July 2013 12:07
Lok Sabha Poll Opinion Poll :If India voted today: TMC to win 23-27 in WB; JD(U) 15-19, BJP 8-12 in Bihar,Opinion Poll Predict by CNN-IBN , Lok Sabha election opinion exit poll, Lok Sabha ELECTION SURVEY RESULT ,  who will win in Lok Sabha polls 2014, Lok Sabha Opinion Poll 2014, Lok Sabha Opinion poll result 2014, Lok Sabha assembly election expected win.

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As India gets ready for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the two key states of West Bengal and Bihar are going to prove very crucial in ensuring who forms the next government at the Centre. Both states are ruled by strong regional parties led by charismatic leaders who are yet to clearly spell out their plans for the next Lok Sabha elections.

 

According to a CSDS-CNN-IBN survey, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal has consolidated its position since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009 while the situation is not so clear in Bihar where the Janata Dal (United) snapped its ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) following the elevation of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as election campaign committee chief.

 

The TMC is not only going retain its dominant position in West Bengal but will leave its rivals way behind if elections are held in July 2013. The survey shows the TMC winning 23-27 seats compared to just 19 that the party had in 2009 even though its vote share has increased by just one percentage point to 32 from 31 the last time.

West Bengal and Bihar are going to prove very crucial in ensuring who forms the next government at the Centre in 2014.

 

Also Read..

Lok Sabha Poll 2014: NDA to win 172-180 seats, UPA 149-157, others 147-155..

Lok Sabha Poll 2014:Regional parties the key as UPA, NDA may fall short of majority in LS polls

 

Mamata's arch-rivals the Left Front has slipped back further and most probably will end with just 7-11 seats from the 15 that it has in the current Lok Sabha while the Congress is likely to bag 5-9 seats and BJP 0-2.

 

While most people prefer the present TMC government (39 per cent) to previous Left Front government (29 per cent), particularly in rural areas; but in urban areas, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's government favoured more than Mamata Banerjee's.

 

The TMC government is also being blamed by more people for the chit fund scam with most people also saying that its fallout has been handled poorly by the Mamata Banerjee government. While Mamata rode to power in West Bengal ending the 34-year long rule of the Left Front using the slogan of "parivartan" (change), half of those surveyed say they are yet to see any major change.

 

While West Bengal essentially remains a two horse race, the picture in Bihar is much more complicated with three-cornered race in most of the seats after the JD(U) parted ways from the BJP. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is trying hard to regain some lost ground and the survey reveals that the former Bihar chief minister seems to have succeeded to making some inroads.

 

For Bihar Chief Nitish Kumar the fight has only got tougher and his party may end up with 15-19 seats in the next Lok Sabha, which will lower than its current tally of 20 MPs. Even though the JD(U) has managed to increase it vote share to 25 per cent from 24 in the last Lok Sabha election, BJP's emergence as a strong challenger seems to have hit the JD(U) in some pockets of the state.

 

The satisfaction level with his government has plunged from an unprecedented high of 90 per cent to 69 while the dissatisfaction is up from 9 per cent to 25.

 

But the BJP too is not sitting very pretty although the party's vote share has seen a huge jump to 22 per cent from 14. While the eight per cent increase in vote share should have ensured more seats to the BJP, what has stopped its march is an equally impressive show by the RJD which has seen its share rising to 24 per cent from 19 in 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

 

Both the BJP and RJD are projected to win 8-12 seats each by the CSDS-CNN-IBN survey with the Congress, which has hinted that it is eyeing Nitish Kumar's support, a distant fourth with 0-4 seats, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party and others likely to bag 0-2 seats.

 

Even as the survey shows that Nitish Kumar's strategy to dump and BJP and go alone has not paid rich dividends, there is still some good news for him as the survey also shows that the Bihar Chief Minister remains the most popular non-Congress, non-BJP choice for the Prime Minister of India with 12 per cent of the respondents reposing their faith in him. Nitish is followed by Mayawati (9 per cent), Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party supreme Mulayam Singh Yadav (8 per cent), NCP chief Sharad Pawar and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik (4 per cent) and J Jayalalithaa (3 per cent).

 

WEST BENGAL

 

 

election1 election2

 

 

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN WEST BENGAL - 15%
Parties/Front
2009 Actual
July 2013 Estimated Vote (%)
Change since 2009
Cong
14
22
+8
BJP
6
12
+6
TMC
31
32
+1
Left
43
28
-15
Others
6
6
0

 

Parties
Estimated Vote (%)
Seat projection
Cong
22
5-9
BJP
12
0-2
TMC
32
23-27
Left
28
7-11
Others
6
-

 

Most people prefer present TMC govt to previous Left Front govt, particularly in rural areas; however in urban areas, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s govt favoured more than Mamata Banerjee’s.
Trinamool or Left: whose government is better?
Overall
Rural Bengal
Urban Bengal
Muslims
Present Trinamool govt. better
38
39
37
36
Previous Left govt. better
32
29
39
37
Both equally good
5
5
5
2
Both equally bad
13
15
9
15
Can’t say/No opinion
12
13
10
10

 

7 out of 10 people have heard about the Chit fund scam
Chit fund scam
 
Heard about it
75
Not heard about it
25

 

Among those who have heard about the Chit fund scam, more people blame the Trinamool Congress than the CPM. Urban Middle and Lower Class blame Trinamool the most for the scam.
Trinamool or CPM: Who is to blame for the Chit fund scam?
Overall
Urban Middle Class
Urban Lower Class
Trinamool Congress to blame
29
38
36
CPM to blame
20
27
21
Both
39
28
23
Neither
11
7
18
Others
1
0
2

 

Among those who have heard of the Chit fund scam, most say its fallout has been handled poorly by the Trinamool government.
Trinamool Govt.’s handling of the Chit fund scam
Overall
Well handled
21
Poorly handled
44
Can’t say/No opinion
35

 

More than half the people yet to make up their mind about Mamata’s decision to leave UPA; Mamata seen as arrogant by most.
Statements on Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Congress
Fully agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat disagree
No opinion
Trinamool Congress’s decision to withdraw from the Cong-led UPA govt. at the Centre was correct.
16
10
8
15
51
Mamata Banerjee is arrogant and intolerant of criticism.
27
16
8
10
39
Mamata Banerjee government has mishandled the ‘Gorkhaland’ issue
19
14
7
10
50
Mamata Banerjee has succeeded in bringing real Partivartan in West Bengal over the last two years.
20
22
8
23
27

 

Maoist influence declining in West Bengal?
In the last one year Maoists in my area have become…
Overall
Rural Bengal
More powerful
24
16
Less powerful
38
41
No difference
11
13
No presence of Maoists in my area
5
6
Don’t know/Can’t say
22
24
Note:
1. All figures are in percentage and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Sample size is 1397.
3. Question asked: In the last one year, have you noticed any change in the activities of the Maoists in your area? Have they become more powerful, less powerful or do you notice no difference?

 

BIHAR

 

election3 election4

 

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN BIHAR - 3%
Parties
2009 Actual
July 2013 Estimated Vote
Change since 2009
Cong
10
10
0
BJP
14
22
+8
JDU
24
25
+1
RJD
19
24
+5
LJP
7
3
-4
Others
26
16
-10

 

Parties
Estimated Vote (%)
Seat projection
Cong
10
0-4
BJP
22
8-12
JDU
25
15-19
RJD
24
8-12
LJP
3
0-2
Others
16
0-2

 

Nitish is still the most popular leader in Bihar but his popularity has dropped since the last election.
Chief Minister preference after the next Assembly elections in Bihar
2010
2013
Nitish Kumar
53
44
Lalu Prasad Yadav
26
25
Sushil Modi
1
7
Rabri Devi
2
2
Ramvilas Paswan
4
2
Others
10
7
Can’t say/No choice
4
13

 

Most people, including JDU’s core voters, are of the opinion that Nitish should have accepted Modi for the sake of the JDU-BJP alliance; Muslims however feel differently.
Opinion on the JDU-BJP alliance break up over Narendra Modi
Overall
Traditional JDU supporters
Kurmi, Koeri
Muslims
Nitish should have accepted Modi as a leader as it was important to maintain the JDU-BJP alliance
38
38
41
24
BJP should not have promoted Modi in order to save the alliance with JDU
20
26
27
35
Can’t say
42
36
32
42

 

Most people blame JDU for the break of the JDU-BJP alliance; however JDU’s core voters are more balanced.
JDU or BJP: Who is to more responsible for the break up?
Overall
Traditional JDU supporters
Kurmi, Koeri
Muslims
JDU more responsible
33
24
30
20
BJP more responsible
19
36
25
30
Both JDU and BJP are equally responsible
18
20
17
22
Neither JDU nor BJP are responsible
4
2
3
7
Can’t say
26
18
26
21

 

JDU should fight the next Lok Sabha elections alone, say most
What should JDU’s Lok Sabha strategy be?
Overall
Traditional JDU supporters
Traditional Congress supporters
Kurmi, Koeri
Muslims
JDU should fight Lok Sabha elections alone
40
49
44
47
39
JDU should tie-up with another party
18
16
17
16
24
Can’t say
42
34
38
37
37

 

Among the few who want JDU to ally with another party, most want it to tie-up with Congress.
Who should the JDU tie up with for the next Lok Sabha polls?
Overall
Traditional JDU supporters
Traditional Congress supporters
Kurmi, Koeri
Muslims
JDU should tie-up with Congress
25
40
54
24
32
JDU should tie-up with BJP
12
10
4
10
6
JDU should tie-up with RJD
8
0
0
0
9
JDU should tie-up with Others
5
10
3
4
4
Can’t say/No opinion
50
40
39
62
49

 

Governance report card of Nitish’s govt is quite negative, except on the Development and employment fronts.
In the last two and a half years of JDU-led rule..
Has increased
Has remained same
Has decreased
Corruption
57
18
19
Employment
37
37
18
Crime/Murder/Kidnapping etc.
40
24
31
Pace of development
52
28
11
Bureaucratic dominance (Afsarshahi)
65
14
7

 

INDIA'S ECONOMIC SITUATION

 

 

 

 

People’s satisfaction with their personal financial condition has gone down
Satisfaction with personal financial condition
2004
2009
2011
2013
Satisfied
63
62
64
59
Dissatisfied
33
29
32
34
Can’t say/No opinion
4
9
4
7

 

People of all classes less satisfied with their personal financial condition compared to 2011
Economic Class
Satisfied with personal financial condition 2011
Satisfied with personal financial condition 2013
Upper
75
72
Middle
72
65
Lower
63
61
Poor
49
47

 

Economic condition of the country mostly rated ‘so-so’ or ‘bad’
Perception of country’s economic situation
All India
Very good
4
Good
17
So-so
32
Bad
20
Very bad
11
Can’t say
16

 

West India and Central India more positive about the economy than other parts
Perception of country’s economic situation
Good
So-so
Bad
Can’t say
All India
21
32
31
16
By region
South India
17
22
32
30
North India
21
36
29
15
Central India
29
37
23
12
West India
31
36
26
7
East India
17
33
38
12
By Class
Upper
29
32
34
6
Middle
22
34
32
12
Lower
20
33
29
18
Poor
18
30
31
22
By locality
Metros
21
39
30
10
Towns/Cities
21
31
37
11
Villages
21
32
30
17

 

Perception of economic situation of the country is much better among those satisfied with their personal financial condition
Perception of country’s economic situation
All India
Those satisfied with personal financial condition
Beneficiaries of NREGA
Good
21
28
24
So-so
32
37
30
Bad
31
23
27
Can’t say
16
12
19

 

BJP viewed as being better for handling economic crises than Congress, particularly among the economically better off and urban respondents
Which party is better for handling economic crises?
All India
Non-Cong, non-BJP supporters
Middle and Upper class
Urban voters
Cong is better
23
17
24
23
BJP is better
26
21
30
30
Both
10
9
11
10
Neither
15
22
16
17
Can’t say/No opinion
26
31
19
21

 

Across classes there is unanimity that the gap between the rich and poor has increased under the UPA
During the last four years of UPA-2’s rule, the gap between rich and poor has...
All India
Poor
Lower Class
Middle Class
Upper Class
Increased
45
45
44
45
48
Remained same
32
29
33
34
34
Decreased
9
7
9
11
11
Can’t say/No opinion
14
18
14
10
6

 

Mixed opinion about employment opportunities under UPA; Urban India more positive than Rural India
During the last four years of UPA-2’s rule, employment opportunities have...
All India
Youth (18-35 years)
36-45 years
Urban voters
Rural voters
Increased
29
29
31
34
27
Remained same
29
31
30
28
29
Decreased
29
30
29
29
29
Can’t say/No opinion
13
10
11
9
15

 

Perception about Price rise much stronger compared to 2011
During UPA-2’s rule, prices of essential commodities have…
2011
2013
Increased
51
81
Remained same
24
9
Decreased
9
3
Can’t say/No opinion
16
7

 

Perception about price rise is strongest among urban lower class and rural upper class
During UPA-2’s rule, prices of essential commodities have…
All India
Urban Lower Class
Rural Upper Class
Increased
81
87
85
Remained same
9
6
9
Decreased
3
3
3
Can’t say/No opinion
7
4
3

 

Central govt. much more to blame for Price rise than State government
Who is more responsible for Price rise?
State govt. more to blame
Central govt. more to blame
ALL INDIA
12
34
Andhra Pradesh
18
14
Assam
9
9
Bihar
10
59
Chhattisgarh
19
20
Delhi
12
22
Gujarat
13
25
Haryana
3
29
Jharkhand
7
38
Karnataka
9
46
Kerala
10
25
Madhya Pradesh
16
41
Maharashtra
13
22
Orissa
18
52
Punjab
10
31
Rajasthan
6
24
Tamil Nadu
14
33
Uttar Pradesh
9
42
West Bengal
13
34


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Last Updated on Tuesday, 06 August 2013 13:46
 

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