- Gujarat Vidhan Sabha is the unicameral legislature of the state of Gujarat, with 182 seats.
- Post independence, the area of Gujarat came under 3 states – Bombay, Saurashtra, and Kutch. Gujarat, as a state, was formed in 1962.
- From 1962 to 1995, INC had varying levels of success in this assembly, forming the government on numerous occasions.
- Their main opposition during this period kept changing, from Swatantra Party (liberalism) to INC (O) (a faction of Congress).
- INC lost in 1975 due to a strong opposition presence – most of which banded together to form a short-lived coalition government. However, in the 1980s, they revived themselves using the KHAM formula, and won 149 out of 182 seats – the highest majority in Gujarat’s history.
- However, since the late 80s, BJP began rising on the national front, especially in Gujarat, which serves as the home state for the party. In 1990, BJP could form a coalition government with Janata Dal, but the coalition broke in less than 8 months, and INC became the coalition partner.
- Since 1995, Gujarat has been a BJP bastion. BJP has won here consecutively for 6 terms.
- However, in the initial years of BJP dominance, from 1995 to 2001, due to infighting and defections, Gujarat saw 4 different Chief Ministers from 2 different parties. In the first term, BJP lost the majority in the assembly and RJP formed the government. In the second term, BJP maintained its majority but the then-incumbent CM Keshubhai Patel resigned due to ill-health, paving the way for Narendra Modi. Post that, BJP has been consistently strong.
- Likewise, the party’s vote share was in the 42% to 45% range during its initial years, but jumped to the 48% to 50% range during the Modi era (which lasted almost 13 years, until 2014 when Modi took over as PM). In the past 8 years, Gujarat has seen 3 new CM faces, including the state’s first female CM.
- However, despite a consistently high vote share, BJP’s seats have decreased progressively, from 127 seats in 2002 to 99 seats in 2017. INC is again emerging as a strong opposition face, witnessing an increase of 26 seats in the same period, mainly due to the evolution of the KHAM formula into the KHAMP formula.
Gujarat’s political future is uncertain, as the main opposition party, INC, is growing stronger. New parties like AAP are also trying to elbow their way into Gujarat politics, which may split the votes in future. The results of the upcoming 2022 Gujarat Election Campaign may surprise India.
LEADTECH has worked in 8 constituencies in the 2007, 2012, and 2017 Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections, and 2 constituencies in the 2014 and 2019 General elections in Gujarat. Leadtech is a non-partisan political consultancy, with clients from all social and political backgrounds. Over 85% of our projects have been fully successful, in which our clients win the elections by large margins. The others have witnessed a large upswing in vote shares, which resulted in close bipolar contests, even if not a win.