There are only two states in the country where Congress is ruling independently, without the support of a coalition partner – Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Although Chhattisgarh, after 15 years of BJP rule, gave the mandate to INC in the last election (2018), Rajasthan has a so-called tennis court arrangement. Since 1998, every term, the party in power changes, andthe other one takes control. Since 1998, only 2 people, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhra Raje, have served as the Chief Minister, on and off. What’s more – it’s a well known fact among political circles that these two opposing forces are actually friends.
While Congress suffered in multiple states since their loss in Lok Sabha beginning 2014, Rajasthan was one of the few states that they won in, and didn’t lose out to political crises like in MP and Karnataka. It certainly wasn’t due to Gehlot’s good governance – his present term has been full of controversies and scandals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in September earlier this year highlighted some of the broken promises – the collapse of law and order, high VAT and power tariffs, unemployment, and many more.
Some allege that Vasundhra Raje is the reason why Gehlot is still in power. It is no secret that Raje has been sidelined from Rajasthan politics almost altogether. She has served two full terms, with many successful schemes, but due to her differences with the BJP high command, Amit Shah in particular, she is no longer involved in the state. She holds no posts – Satish Poonia is the state party president and former state minister Gulab Chand Kataria is the Leader of Opposition despite having a former CM in the assembly. She has the ceremonial post of National Vice President, but no control in her home state. It is not far-fetched for the public to assume that after being denied opportunities, Raje would work against the party, or at least, not find motivation to help the party.
Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they
all claim.
Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they all claim.
On the first glance, one may assess Congress’s position in the state as strong, but the party has its own complications. For starters, the CM face for the party is still dubious. 3 term incumbent Ashok Gehlot seems like the more natural choice, but Sachin Pilot has been aiming for the seat for a long time. Even though Gehlot gave up the Congress presidential post to safeguard his position in the state, it would be interesting to see who Mallikarjun Kharge would pick for the face next year. If at all they decide to go with Pilot, a begrudged Gehlot might work Raje-style and help Congress lose. Besides leadership, Congress also has the problem of caste-based vote consolidation – a strategy BJP is a master of, but Congress lately seems to have lost an understanding of. Ultimately, it will depend upon the on-ground work both parties undertake.
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